Ferrari's two wins all year leave Mercedes needing very little to seal the title in Brazil
Mercedes lead Ferrari by 126 points and will win the 2026 Teams' Championship at Interlagos if they outscore Ferrari by three or more.
Mercedes arrive in Brazil 126 points clear of Ferrari, and the sums ask very little of them. Outscore Ferrari by three points or more at Interlagos and the Teams' Championship is theirs, to go with the Drivers' title Kimi Antonelli already wrapped up with third place in Mexico City.
How three points settles it
Four rounds remain, and a maximum of 172 points are still available if a team records a one-two at every Grand Prix. After Brazil, 129 will be left. Formula 1's own breakdown sets the line: "If they leave Interlagos more than 128 points ahead of Ferrari, they will have done enough to take the title." A tie at the end of the season would go to Mercedes on countback, because they have won more races.
Mexico was a different story. Mercedes needed an unlikely set of results to clinch it there, so it never felt like a title weekend. Ferrari are now the only team who can still catch them. Red Bull and McLaren have dropped out of the fight, despite Max Verstappen winning three of the last four races.
Why the pressure falls on Ferrari's second car
If Ferrari fail to score, eighth place for either Antonelli or George Russell is enough. A Ferrari one-two guarantees the fight goes on beyond Brazil, but a single Ferrari win might not. As Formula 1 put it: "If Ferrari win the race, Mercedes can still clinch the title if Antonelli and Russell finish high enough up the order, provided the other Ferrari finishes lower down."
That is why we think the weight of this weekend sits on whichever Ferrari isn't leading, more than on either Mercedes. Ferrari need both cars at the front, not one.
A season that makes a Ferrari one-two look a stretch
Ferrari have 504 points, but only two wins: Lewis Hamilton in Barcelona and Charles Leclerc at Silverstone. They have had both drivers on the same podium just once, at Silverstone. Asking for a one-two at Interlagos means asking for something their season has barely shown.
Mercedes have scored 630 points. Antonelli has nine Grand Prix wins and Russell three, and the team have finished first and second three times, in the first two rounds and again at Monza. That is how a lead of 126 points gets built, and our view is that it was earned by the quickest team of the year. We expect it to be settled on Sunday.
If Ferrari do find that one-two, the next chance for Mercedes comes at the Las Vegas Grand Prix, with Qatar and Abu Dhabi still to follow before the season ends.
