Antonelli can clinch the title in Austin, but only if Russell has a shocker
Kimi Antonelli leads George Russell by 102 points and can win the title in Austin, but only with a win and poor results for Russell and Hamilton.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli could be world champion with five rounds to spare if he wins the United States Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas. The catch is that it also needs his own Mercedes team mate, George Russell, to have a shocker.
The maths after Singapore
Antonelli finished third in the Singapore Grand Prix. That stretched his lead at the top of the standings to 102 points over Russell. Six rounds remain, none of them with a sprint race, so there are 150 points still up for grabs. After Austin that falls to 125.
That's the number that matters. If Antonelli leaves Austin with 125 points in hand over his rivals, nobody can catch him and the title is his.
What has to happen on Sunday
The only way he gets there is by winning the race. Even that isn't enough on its own. Russell has to finish no higher than tenth, and Lewis Hamilton has to finish outside the top five.
Three other drivers are still mathematically in contention: Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris. They aren't the obstacle in Austin, though. As RaceFans put it, "none of them can win the title if Antonelli scores another grand prix victory."
So the whole thing rests on Antonelli winning while Russell drops to tenth or lower and Hamilton misses the top five, all on the same afternoon. That's a long shot for one Sunday.
There's one more thing hanging over the run-in. RaceFans notes the championship situation could change if F1 can't hold all of the remaining races. The war in Iran has cast doubt over whether the final two rounds, in Qatar and Abu Dhabi, will go ahead, and F1 has indicated it could replace one race with another at Imola.
Decided in all but the maths
Austin probably won't be the day. But this title has been decided in all but the maths for a long time. The 20-year-old has made a huge jump from an up-and-down rookie campaign, and five consecutive wins from round two to six put him firmly in charge. Motorsport.com described him as "the man to beat virtually all season", and it's hard to argue.
Antonelli has earned every point of it. The date is the only thing left to settle.
